Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
The "Law of Large Numbers"
I think the common sense portion of the Law of Large Numbers still applies...it's harder to double the 'next' time.
And if a company remains in the same market, it's more applicable. If Apple remained only in the desktop and notebook market, it wouldn't be doubling it's earnings.
But it entered a new market recently, 'mobile' and its growth isn't anywhere near tapped out like conventional PC growth is.
I think Mary Meeker worded it something like, "each new generation of technology has been 10x the size of the last" in her mobile internet presentation.
So Apple seems to be benefiting from meeting the needs of this next new, and larger market segment. Eventually the Law of Large Number will apply to it too.
What's next after mobile, "ultra mobile"? Will Apple dominate a market for even smaller more wearable computers? Again increasing the size of the markets it in?
Will iCloud open up a new area of growth that MobileMe never really tapped into?
I think the Law of Large numbers has attacked Microsoft, and their glory growth days from the PC market are past. Apples innovation has allowed them to move on to the next market and future markets and is enjoying the 10X opportunities Mary Meeker was describing.
The Law of Large numbers is still back there, having it's normal effect on other companies. Apple has been able to stay in front of it with market insight and innovation.
We are just in the damn unlucky position of having a stock that can double its earnings while only having a p/e of 1/5 that. Bad bad luck, what's an investor to do.
When corn is on sale, buy corn.
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